As discussed in last week’s issue of Wealth Notes, positive surprises in recent economic data have coincided with new stock market highs. However, we note certain technical indicators are throwing up caution flags regarding how much higher the market may run. The aptly named “Smart Money/Dumb Money” Confidence indicator is one of our favorite measures of investor sentiment. The indicator uses “real money” gauges to track what different groups of investors are actually doing with their money. Oftentimes the behavior of the indicator is simply noise, but extreme movements incite awareness.

After more than a year of treading water the S&P 500 finally moved above its former all-time high of 2135 (set May 21, 2015) this week to set new all-time record highs.  Being only two weeks removed from the “Brexit” market turmoil, setting new highs has seemed to take most investors by surprise. It’s probably not hard to come up with reasons for market caution (we’ve heard there is a presidential election coming up this year) but we are definitely struck by the strength we have seen in recent U.S. economic data.  In this issue we share what we are seeing with three major pieces of economic data.

On Wednesday evening the ESPY Awards were held recognizing individual and team athletic achievement. The winning streak continued for the Cleveland Cavaliers off the court as they received several awards, and the careers of retirees Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant, and Abby Wambach were celebrated. As athletes were recognized and admired for their determination, commitment, and confidence throughout the season, an individual “on the sidelines” provided the greatest inspiration that night.

Jessica Herrin, CEO & Founder of the Stella & Dot Family of Brands and author of Find Your Extraordinary, recently published an article after meeting with a new college graduate in search of landing her “dream job.” With two job offers in front of her, she was concerned that they weren’t all she had hoped they’d be after obtaining her degree; one could be too tedious, the other could be too challenging. Her goal was to begin her career in a position she was very passionate about without compromise. The words of wisdom Jessica shared are valuable not only to those entering the workforce but each one of us as we are reminded those that look for easy will never find extraordinary.

Thursday morning we held our monthly “Portfolios at Panera” event – an opportunity for clients and friends to hear about what is happening in the markets and how those happenings are impacting portfolios we manage. Today’s session consisted of three main topics: Brexit, market performance for the first half of 2016, and interesting observations when to politics and the presidential candidates.

Aside from picnics and parades, Independence Day is a time to reaffirm God’s vision for America while we reflect on the reason for celebration. As we honor our nation’s birthday this weekend, we remember with gratitude the many men and women who have served in the military so that all Americans can enjoy the freedoms we cherish.  Army Sergeant Bryan Anderson is one such veteran.  But it is not just his service that inspires us; it’s what he has done since then to encourage all who know him, or his story, to live lives with courage, passion, and greatness.

While polls and betting odds suggested the United Kingdom would remain part of the European Union, last night’s news came as a surprise, particularly to the financial markets. At The Joseph Group, our investment team is on the phone with money managers processing the impact of UK’s decision on markets and portfolios. As markets digest the news, here are some facts we are discussing as we separate the signal from the noise.

They say there is always a lesson to be learned from every experience and the NBA finals were no exception. LeBron James had been tasked with delivering a promise – a championship to his hometown. But even leaders need to learn to be led and in this week’s message we share words of wisdom that helped the Cavaliers bring the championship trophy home to Cleveland. 

Flat. Frustrated. While these two words describe the stock market and the mood of investors respectively, it is important to be smart in responding to what the market is doing. After all, Benjamin Franklin once said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” With that in mind we share with you two crucial concepts to consider in this range-bound environment.

Charles Plumb, a U.S. Naval Academy graduate, was a U.S. Navy jet pilot in Vietnam. After 75 combat missions, his plane was destroyed by a surface-to-air missile. Plumb ejected and parachuted into enemy hands. It was not until years later he realized the impact that experience would have on him and ultimately those he shared it with.