The stock market has seen some volatility within the last couple of weeks but in reality, a little more market volatility would be a return to normalcy.

At this month’s Portfolio at Panera meeting we reviewed the performance of different asset classes in the 2nd quarter of 2017 (April – June) and whether we believed the trends in those asset classes might continue in the second half of the year.

This year, international stocks have clearly been the leaders in the global equity market, with emerging markets being the best performing area of the world. In particular, one interesting area complex has been the country of India.  India has developed a program called Aadhaar (think a bigger Social Security system in the technology age) which not only has the potential to stimulate economic growth in India, but may also provide a glimpse into the future of the global economy.  

School is out and we are almost halfway through 2017.  As we are reviewing May’s month-end performance, it’s a good time to look at the big picture themes driving markets as we enter into the summer months.  

Last week two members of The Joseph Group’s investment team, Travis Upton and Aaron Filbeck, were in Denver, Colorado meeting with fund managers at the Westcore Funds.  Westcore manages mutual funds and institutional accounts in a wide range of strategies including small company growth stocks, dividend paying stocks, corporate bonds, and international small company stocks.  Travis and Aaron had the opportunity to discuss markets and strategy with all of the different fund management teams and gain valuable insights for The Joseph Group’s investment committee.

Can you name the local high school that has 100% of its seniors accepted to one or more colleges?  Upper Arlington?  Bexley?  Columbus Academy?  CSG?  Nope, it’s Cristo Rey Columbus the amazing downtown Catholic school that provides a college preparatory education to under-served central Ohio youth from all faiths who come from economically challenged families.  More than half of that school’s seniors will be the first in their families to attend college!  Talk about a game changer – this school is producing pioneers – young people whose futures will be radically transformed because of this life changing high school.

Looking at performance for different areas of the U.S. stock market, small cap stocks are the weakest performers so far in 2017.  While the Morningstar Large Company Blend average is up about 4.5% year-to-date (through April 19th), the Morningstar Small Blend average is essentially flat for the same period.

With a backdrop of political headlines and strong economic data, most asset classes posted positive results for the first three months of 2017.  What we found most interesting though was the change in leadership from the end of 2016.  Areas of the markets which led the markets immediately after Trump’s election lagged in the first quarter, while areas which did not perform as well in November and December of 2016 were the market leaders in the 1st quarter of 2017.  

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased their upper target for the Federal Fund Rate (think short-term interest rates) from 0.75% to 1.00%. The increase was the second rate hike in the last three months, but only the third hike since the global financial crisis. We share with you some of our thoughts on the response to the Fed rate hike from different areas of the financial markets.

One of the biggest questions clients are asking right now is “Are stocks expensive?” And the short answer is yes – based on historical comparisons, valuations on U.S. stocks are definitely high. According to research from the Leuthold Group, as of 12/31/2016 the S&P 500 trailing price to earnings (P/E) ratio was in the 90th percentile (meaning stocks have only been more expensive 10% of the time) of valuations going back to 1920. Does that mean stock prices need to fall in order to get back to more reasonable valuations? Not necessarily…