As discussed in last week’s issue of Wealth Notes, positive surprises in recent economic data have coincided with new stock market highs. However, we note certain technical indicators are throwing up caution flags regarding how much higher the market may run. The aptly named “Smart Money/Dumb Money” Confidence indicator is one of our favorite measures of investor sentiment. The indicator uses “real money” gauges to track what different groups of investors are actually doing with their money. Oftentimes the behavior of the indicator is simply noise, but extreme movements incite awareness.

After more than a year of treading water the S&P 500 finally moved above its former all-time high of 2135 (set May 21, 2015) this week to set new all-time record highs.  Being only two weeks removed from the “Brexit” market turmoil, setting new highs has seemed to take most investors by surprise. It’s probably not hard to come up with reasons for market caution (we’ve heard there is a presidential election coming up this year) but we are definitely struck by the strength we have seen in recent U.S. economic data.  In this issue we share what we are seeing with three major pieces of economic data.

Thursday morning we held our monthly “Portfolios at Panera” event – an opportunity for clients and friends to hear about what is happening in the markets and how those happenings are impacting portfolios we manage. Today’s session consisted of three main topics: Brexit, market performance for the first half of 2016, and interesting observations when to politics and the presidential candidates.

While polls and betting odds suggested the United Kingdom would remain part of the European Union, last night’s news came as a surprise, particularly to the financial markets. At The Joseph Group, our investment team is on the phone with money managers processing the impact of UK’s decision on markets and portfolios. As markets digest the news, here are some facts we are discussing as we separate the signal from the noise.

Flat. Frustrated. While these two words describe the stock market and the mood of investors respectively, it is important to be smart in responding to what the market is doing. After all, Benjamin Franklin once said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” With that in mind we share with you two crucial concepts to consider in this range-bound environment.

Earlier today we held our monthly “Portfolios at Panera” event.  The last Thursday of each month we spend an hour talking with clients and friends about what is happening in the markets and how those happenings are impacting client portfolios. In addition to talking about “hot topics” such as the British referendum to potentially leave the European Union, and when the Fed might raise interest rates, we spent a good deal of time looking at forecasts of which asset classes are likely to have the best (and worst) performance over the next five years.

While teaching a professional development class in Minnesota this week The Joseph Group’s Chief Investment Officer, Travis Upton, had the opportunity to visit with the portfolio management team at the Minneapolis-based investment firm, The Leuthold Group. Travis was able to talk with a number of the portfolio managers at the firm, including Leuthold Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey. Here are two key takeaways from the meetings:

Here in Central Ohio, as fans filled out their brackets, one team was noticeably absent from the 64 (or 68 if you include the Thursday games) teams in the NCAA tournament – the Ohio State Buckeyes.  The Ohio State men’s basketball team got off to a rough start this season, losing three straight games in the Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational in November to supposedly inferior teams. Like the Ohio State men’s basketball team, the U.S. stock market also got off to a bad start – the worst start to a year in history as the market was down over -8% in the first 10 trading days of the year.  However, unlike the Buckeyes, the stock market is getting the chance to “start over.”

We know markets are tough, but what areas are doing better than others?

The biggest question on clients’ minds – Does the rough start for the market this year foreshadow the coming of a bigger bear market? Looking at a graph showing some of the worst 10-day starts to a year remind us positive returns could be in store for 2016.