During the first three weeks of the year, the financial markets have been relatively calm.  If there is any “trend” we have observed, it is the simple fact that some areas of the market which rallied the most after the Presidential election in 2016 are now relative laggards in 2017, and areas of the market which performed the worst are now the market leaders.  The numbers are not huge – most asset class returns are between -1% and 3% so far in 2017, but today we are sharing three examples of what we are seeing.

Earlier this week, we ended our 2016 monthly series of “Portfolios at Panera” talks with a market recap event at The Joseph Group’s offices.  We reviewed each major asset category and talked about “What did we do (in portfolios in 2016)?” and “What is our view (outlook for each asset class in 2017)?”  One of the items we discussed was the underperformance of foreign stocks relative to U.S. stocks since the election and the answer was surprising.

As widely anticipated, earlier this week the Federal Reserve increased its target for short-term interest rates by 0.25% (from 0.25% to 0.50%).  The move was well telegraphed – prior to Wednesday’s meeting, the market (Fed Funds futures) were pricing in a near 100% chance the rate hike would happen. What remains uncertain though is the Fed’s path for rate hikes in 2017. What does all of this mean for bonds?  After all, when interest rates go up, bond prices go down. 

The Small Cap rally is no turkey. In the two weeks since the U.S. presidential election we have seen wide swings in different areas of the financial markets, but one of the clear winners has been U.S. Small Cap stocks.  Why have they “trumped” the performance of other asset classes?

On Monday we wrote Wall Street wanted Hillary to be President…and that was clearly true at the beginning of the week through about 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning.  As election results came in and states were being “called,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down as much as -850 points in the overnight session as it became clear Donald Trump would become President of the United States. Two days do not make a market trend, but we share some of our key observations from actions in various areas of the market the last two days since Trump was named as President-elect.

Earlier this week an article from Bloomberg.com titled “The Next 10 Years Will Be Ugly for Your 401(k)” circulated on Apple news. The article is based on research from California-based Research Affiliates and concludes that in an environment of low interest rates for U.S. bonds and high valuations for U.S. stocks, the outlook for future returns from those asset classes is low. Specifically, the article goes on to state that an investor has a 0% chance of earning a real (after inflation) annualized return of 5% over the next 10 years. Our team shares three main thoughts in regard to this article.

Earlier this week a member of our investment team, Aaron Filbeck, attended JPMorgan’s two-day Wealth Management Summit in New York City. The Summit was a chance to meet with JPMorgan’s portfolio management teams, dig into investment processes, and discuss the current state of the markets. In addition to hearing from fund managers, Aaron also had the opportunity to attend a presentation and Q&A session with Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s Chief Executive Officer.

Yesterday a client asked, “Why was the market down today?”  Our response was “Because it’s October.” The response was not mean to be flippant – October is a month notorious for market volatility. We share with you today a graph reflecting the S&P 500 historical seasonal pattern along with an interesting chart displaying the S&P 500 average performance in presidential election years. 

This past weekend, an article appeared in The Columbus Dispatch written by Todd Walter, Client Advisor and Director of Advisory Services at The Joseph Group. In case you missed it, Todd discussed the work of Senator William Roth, a legislative sponsor of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. That legislation produced one of the great financial planning tools of this generation – the Roth IRA. Today we share with you the many benefits of a Roth IRA, applicable to individuals throughout all stages of life.

Earlier this week the Federal Reserve voted to keep short term interest rates unchanged from their current target range of (0.25% to 0.50%).  The market reaction to the “hold” was positive as stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities all rallied after the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday and continued to rally on Thursday.  The market clearly likes the idea of low interest rates continuing to stimulate the economy – the Fed is not taking away the punch bowl yet.