School is out and we are almost halfway through 2017. As we are reviewing May’s month-end performance, it’s a good time to look at the big picture themes driving markets as we enter into the summer months.
Looking at performance for different areas of the U.S. stock market, small cap stocks are the weakest performers so far in 2017. While the Morningstar Large Company Blend average is up about 4.5% year-to-date (through April 19th), the Morningstar Small Blend average is essentially flat for the same period.
Earlier this week we held our regular “Portfolios at Panera” and “Markets on Marconi” events where the primary discussion topic was how we were allocating portfolios as we start 2017. One of the key discussion points was our current target “overweight” to stocks within our Harvest strategy and how we are structuring that allocation across U.S. and foreign stocks, and large and small companies. A question which came up at both events was “Where do you think the stock market will finish 2017?”
Earlier this week, we ended our 2016 monthly series of “Portfolios at Panera” talks with a market recap event at The Joseph Group’s offices. We reviewed each major asset category and talked about “What did we do (in portfolios in 2016)?” and “What is our view (outlook for each asset class in 2017)?” One of the items we discussed was the underperformance of foreign stocks relative to U.S. stocks since the election and the answer was surprising.
As widely anticipated, earlier this week the Federal Reserve increased its target for short-term interest rates by 0.25% (from 0.25% to 0.50%). The move was well telegraphed – prior to Wednesday’s meeting, the market (Fed Funds futures) were pricing in a near 100% chance the rate hike would happen. What remains uncertain though is the Fed’s path for rate hikes in 2017. What does all of this mean for bonds? After all, when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.
Earlier this week the Federal Reserve voted to keep short term interest rates unchanged from their current target range of (0.25% to 0.50%). The market reaction to the “hold” was positive as stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities all rallied after the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday and continued to rally on Thursday. The market clearly likes the idea of low interest rates continuing to stimulate the economy – the Fed is not taking away the punch bowl yet.
Earlier today, a voting member of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren) made statements which created a strong market reaction. According to Rosengren, the Fed believes continuing to keep interest rates low may present “longer-term risks from significantly overshooting the economy’s growth.” As a result he stated “a reasonable case can be made for continuing to pursue a gradual normalization in monetary policy.” Members of the Fed seem to always speak in confusing sentences and big words, but to the financial markets, Rosengren’s words meant one thing…
With stock indexes hitting new highs this week, it is worth taking a closer look at what areas are leading the U.S. stock market. The stocks leading the market during the last six to seven months are very different than the stocks which led the market last year. It may take an increase in interest rates for market leadership to shift again, but when it comes to valuations, there is risk that FANG may bite back against the RUST.
Thursday morning we held our monthly “Portfolios at Panera” event – an opportunity for clients and friends to hear about what is happening in the markets and how those happenings are impacting portfolios we manage. Today’s session consisted of three main topics: Brexit, market performance for the first half of 2016, and interesting observations when to politics and the presidential candidates.
While polls and betting odds suggested the United Kingdom would remain part of the European Union, last night’s news came as a surprise, particularly to the financial markets. At The Joseph Group, our investment team is on the phone with money managers processing the impact of UK’s decision on markets and portfolios. As markets digest the news, here are some facts we are discussing as we separate the signal from the noise.